Might be a tiny little bit more than you're willing to spend, but perhaps look into a GTX 260 216SP. I got one as a warranty replacement to the no longer stocked 8800 GTX and could not be happier with it.
It can run Oblivion, FEAR2, Supcom and more or less anything else I throw at it in 1920x1080 max details no issue. Crysis still made it chug a bit, dropped res and details on that one, but that's still fairly normal. 
Looking around, I see there are a lot of lower models now, GTX250 was part of the original launch, but now there are like GT210s and that kind of thing. The GTX250 was reasonable from what I understand (but still a fair dip below the 260), I have no clue on the performance on the newer GT's with lower figures. Do some research if you're wanting to look at those!
