the research 'S' curve
from 
Stardock Forums
Stardock Forums
yet another realism we must consider. after each fundamental break through there is a time where technology is slow to appear based on the break through, until a firm grasp of a new technology is realized. then a period of fast developement where new devices becomes available based on the key technology. research into new technology then slows until another fundamental break through.
take batteries for example.
Lead Acid: HEAVY, LARGE, unsutable for portable devices, must be kept in a fully charged state or the batery fails.
Alkaline: not rechargeable, decent capacity. capacity increased over time but soonm surpassed by ni-cad
Ni-cads. should be kept chared after use, initialy lower capacity for weight, slow charge. after years of use and continued research, charge rates got faster, capacities grew and surpassed alkaline.
Ni-MH. better capacity than ni-cads, lighter weight, can be stored discharged. almost 3 times the capacity of ni-cads and still growing.
Li-ION even better still than NI-MH. though slower charging, the capacity is increased almost two fold initially in the same size container. weight is DRASTICALLY reduced and capacity is growing fast still today. a few problems with this tech today include the need for built in electronics to keep the battery from dropping below 2v per cell or else the battery is destroyed, special chargers ( infrastructer problem )
tommorows battery? who knows. the fundamental science is being done today. goals: more capacity, faster charging, lighter weight, longer life, cheaper construction. major indications are that batteries as we know them may be a dying breed, unless a major breakthrough occurs. the most likely successor at this point is a new line of technology itself. minature fuel cells. you'll start to see them in cell phones next year. you can already buy after market ones already ( though the manufacturer is not marketing them under the fuel cell name, they are simply sold as HIGH capacity disposables )
take batteries for example.
Lead Acid: HEAVY, LARGE, unsutable for portable devices, must be kept in a fully charged state or the batery fails.
Alkaline: not rechargeable, decent capacity. capacity increased over time but soonm surpassed by ni-cad
Ni-cads. should be kept chared after use, initialy lower capacity for weight, slow charge. after years of use and continued research, charge rates got faster, capacities grew and surpassed alkaline.
Ni-MH. better capacity than ni-cads, lighter weight, can be stored discharged. almost 3 times the capacity of ni-cads and still growing.
Li-ION even better still than NI-MH. though slower charging, the capacity is increased almost two fold initially in the same size container. weight is DRASTICALLY reduced and capacity is growing fast still today. a few problems with this tech today include the need for built in electronics to keep the battery from dropping below 2v per cell or else the battery is destroyed, special chargers ( infrastructer problem )
tommorows battery? who knows. the fundamental science is being done today. goals: more capacity, faster charging, lighter weight, longer life, cheaper construction. major indications are that batteries as we know them may be a dying breed, unless a major breakthrough occurs. the most likely successor at this point is a new line of technology itself. minature fuel cells. you'll start to see them in cell phones next year. you can already buy after market ones already ( though the manufacturer is not marketing them under the fuel cell name, they are simply sold as HIGH capacity disposables )
