HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray, NetFlix and Blockbuster, who will win?

from JoeUser Forums

I mentioned in a response to another article that I have thoughts about the current HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray fight, as well as NetFlix vs. Blockbuster, and who will wind up being the king of all media in the future.

First, let me let it be known that I have at least one dog in the fight.  Actually a couple of dogs perhaps.  In the name of full disclosure, let me say that I own an HD-DVD add-on drive that goes with my Xbox 360 system (or can be moved so that my wife can use it on her Xbox 360).  I have purchased a few (less than 10) HD-DVD discs and enjoy them a lot.  I've rented about 6 - 8 HD-DVD discs from NetFlix and Blockbuster.com as well.  I don't currently have a Blu-Ray disc player, though I have had thoughts about getting a PlayStation 3 that I could use as a Blu-Ray player.

I am currently a customer of Blockbuster.com and have been a customer (and may return to them in the future for a while) of NetFlix.

If forced to choose, I'd tell you there isn't a lot of business between Blockbuster.com and NetFlix, though Blockbuster.com has 'exclusives' on one of the larger 'indy' studios while NetFlix offers it's customers the ability to stream some of their inventory for free over the net.  They cost basically the same, and with Blockbuster.com's Total Freedom plan, you can return movies in store and get extra rentals so even with NetFlix's streaming movies for free, you are getting about the same value from either.

With those notes out of the way, I'm going to give everyone a hot tip on who is going to win the battle between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, and who will win the battle between NetFlix and Blockbuster.com.

Are you ready?

You are sure you are ready?

If you are absolutely sure you are ready, then jump to the comments area and continuing reading there.

5,398 views 4 replies
Reply #1 from JoeUser Forums Top

Thanks for making the jump.  Now comes the pay-off.  Here goes....

The answer is NEITHER and/or none of the above (and I don't mean none of the above in a Richard Pryor in Brewster's Millions type way....)

What am I talking about and what am I saying?  I'm saying and talking about the fact that none of these hi-def viewing solutions will be the winner.  NetFlix isn't going to win, nor will Blockbuster.com.  HD-DVD will likely never win the format wars, but at the same time, Blu-Ray disc may not win either.

How is this possible?  It's not just possible, it's probable, which is my point here.  None of these solutions will win the hearts and minds of the customers that they are aiming at.  Viewers that want more high definition content will likely get it from sources other than these choices.  Sources such as cable with their video-on-demand offerings, TV over FiOS (for customers lucky enough to have that offering), or even satellite customers who have video-on-demand offerings showing up soon or already available to them.

These video on demand sources, as well as premium (pay) channels that are moving to high definition formats are going to leave the 'old media' of TV viewing offerings behind.  Customers are going to wind up renting content (pay-per-view), or getting it for free with some free video-on-demand offerings, or getting it as part of their cable/satellite subscriptions.  The amount of high definition programming that is coming to cable and satellite customers is about to expand exponentially, and the choices available to customers are going to be over-whelming.

Personally I've put the slow-down on buying more HD content 'to own' because I don't want to waste the space to house it all when I know I'll have a wealth of choices available to me to watch just about anything I want.  I can stream movies on my Xbox 360 over the Marketplace, or soon I'll get video-on-demand from DirecTV, or just watch content on Starz! HD, or HBO HD, Showtime HD, or a whole host of other channels coming in high-definition this fall.

Why should I waste my money, and my limited space in my home, to buy up copies of movies and TV series on DVD or other disc formats when I can watch so much high def content on my TV without having to go to the store to get any of it?  For less than the cost of one HD-DVD (way less than the cost of a typical Blu-Ray disc) I can get HBO, plus Starz! or Showtime for a month.  I can probably have all 3 if I am thinking about buying anything in Blu-Ray format.  If I was buying more than one disc in a month at current pricing, I'd easily be able to get even more premium programming or just factor the costs into the base price I pay for DirecTV service.

I've seen some people talk about the idea that they won't buy into the next generation disc formats until the discs are in the bargain bins and are available at under $10 each.  They may see those prices in the next few years, though it took a while for such pricing to arrive in the DVD market.  While those prices are dropping, the competition from pay TV choices will be hitting both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray hard, and NetFlix and Blockbuster.com will likely take a ton of collateral damage.

Will either be left standing at the end of the fight?  You tell me.

Reply #2 from JoeUser Forums Top
HD-DVD has already won. Hello Betamax, I mean, Blu-Ray.
Ashes of the Singularity II
Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top
Samsung already offers a combo player that can handle either format. Should this type of media survive, I'd be willing to be that both will continue to limp along side by side, with studios initially choosing to align with one side or the other, but having a mish-mash in the end.
Reply #4 from JoeUser Forums Top
I decided to cover all the bases and went out and purchased the Toshiba HD-A20 HD-DVD player and the Sony BDPS300 Blu-Ray player as well as a HD PVR/Receiver from my satelite provider that gives me all presently available HD channels and the ability to record in HD (this particular PVR/Receiver model has a 180 gig hard drive for about 25 hours worth of recording and will allow me to record as many as two different shows and watch a third show all at the same time.)

The two players with their respective formats gives me access to all the HD movies I wish to own and the PVR/Receiver lets me watch all my television in hi-def, with the added bonus of being able to record certain programs to watch at my convenience.

I know that eventually one of my players will become a very expensive paperweight, (I'm guessing the Toshiba HD-DVD player), but until then it doesn't matter where the trend ends up, I'm covered.