Defections - what do I need to look out for?

Is it just Public Opinion?
I was playing a game last night and got the Unhappy people on a certain planet message - along with the skull icon (>?). I wound up my propoganda to full and rushed a couple of morale social projects but they still defected.
There were no alien worlds/starbases in that sector - the nearest was about 3 sectors away. I had a starbase with Culture + 5% operating there.
Are there any signs to watch out for other than approval rating. It was 49% when I got the warning and 65% prior to defection. I want to nip it in the bud before I get the warning but am not sure what to do apart from use propoganda on all planets under 50%.
Playing on large/normal.
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I've run into this too, and have been usually unable to stop the defection - usually to one of the independents. Several times I have started wars to recover "my" worlds, but that's a pretty blunt approach. Lots of ships in orbit *seems* to help, but I don't really have the data to back this suspicion up. Anyone know for sure?