Super Tuesday: Obama gains and so does Huckabee

The primaries again

from JoeUser Forums
Super Tuesday has come and gone, but the scene is still confused and perplexing. The Republicans have more or less sewn up the nomination process, even, though Senator John Mccain has a harvest of only 517 delegate out of a required total of 1,191. His nearest rival, Mitt Romney has 219 delegates and Huckabee has 158. The surprising aspect of Super Tuesday was the fact that the Baptist minister Mike Hukabee was able to win 5 states and win in states like Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee and West Virginia. With the "Bible Belt" well covered, I think, Mike Huckabee is in a position to stake a strong claim for the Vice President nomination and John Maccain will need the solid support of the "conservative faithfuls" of the republican party to win. Mitt Romney too fits the bill, but the chemistry beteen Mccain and Romney is too complex.

John Mccain has won in 9 states and crucially in states where the winners take all rule is in place. His win in Arizona, California,Connecticut,Missourie, Oklahoma and Illinois. His victory seems to be the result of the split in the conservative vote between Huckabee and Romney. This spilt has helped now, but in November if the conservative base of the Republican Party chooses to be indifferent, then John Mccain will be in deep deep trouble. As expected Mitt Romney carried the state of Mass, Utah and North Dakota. Not too poor a showing at all, considering the fact that many had written off his candidature.

On the Democratic side Senatoe Barack Obama certainly has the momentum having won in 12 state to the 8 which Senator Hillary Clinton won. In terms of delegates Clinton is slightly ahead with 600 delegates including the superdelegates to 554 for Obama. Hillary Clinton has been able to carry the delegate rich states of New York,New Jersey, Arkansas, Oklohoma, Tennessee, Arizona and California and the Ted Kennedy endorsement did not help Obama in Mass. The Illinos senator, on the other hand has made significant inroads in Minnesota, Georgia, Utah, Delaware, Albama, Alaska, Dakota, Colorado and Kansas. It is quite clear that the "Latino" votes in term,s of identity politics is going the Obama way and he will further consolidate this "vote bank" by the time of the November election. The simple message of "Our Time has Come" is resonating across the nation and if nominated Obama may even win.

The good thing about this primary has been the fact that race is slowly ceasing to be a factor in people's calculations. Large number of whites have voted for Obama, though the minorities still seem to prefer their own ethnic candidate. Hillary Clinton is not even getting the women votes in numbers that she hoped for and this means that gender is not that much of an issue in this election. Hillary Clinton speaks of her "experience" from day one. I cannot think of any public office that she held before becoming a senator from New Yoek. Constantly crowing about her "exprience" versus "hope" seems to be quite a pipe dream.

After the Super Tuesday the Democrats have still not come close to nominating their candidate but the momentum, at least for now seesm to be on the side of Obama.
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Reply #1 from JoeUser Forums Top

Another solid analysis!  You are getting good at this.

There is really nothing I can debate with this with you.  I would debate with others about Huckabee being a conservative and helping the ticket.  But that is an ongoing debate that will never be won.  You are probably right in that McCain will choose him, and he will be the nominee.

The interesting part is going to be on the democrat side.  While many powerbrokers are still pushing Hillary, it seems the message is being lost on the party faithful.  And that doee not upset me at all.

The Kennedy issue though is the biggest non-news.  The Kennedys and Clintons have been feuding since 2004, and their endorsement of Obama is less of a "we love him" and more of "we cant stand them" against the Clintons.  The clintons are great campaigners and can build a great campaign, with solid support.  But the Kennedys thought they were running the party (and indeed, they have had a major hold on it since JFK - the last sucessful Democrat since Clinton), but the Clintons told them otherwise in 04.  And they have not forgotten that.

Reply #2 from JoeUser Forums Top
I agree with Dr. Guy... you're getting good at this.
Star Control: Origins
Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top
Strange. In our medias, here, it's moslty reported that it was Clinton and McCain who won the lion's part of yesterday's primaries.

Aren't they ahead in the del. count?
Reply #4 from JoeUser Forums Top
Aren't they ahead in the del. count?
End of quote


Strange thing about that. Hillary is ahead, but only because of Super Delegates (party clowns that are not voted for). Obama actually leads in elected delegates 603-590.
Reply #5 from JoeUser Forums Top
Another solid analysis! You are getting good at this.


agree with Dr. Guy... you're getting good at this.


Thanks guys. Actually I was not too warm to Obama in the bveginning, but as the campaign wore on and he displayed what in the military would be called "grit under fire" I began to follow his trail. At first I though that white Americans will not support him. I was wrong in that assessment as he has been gettin a good chunk of white votes as well. Hillary Clinton will only be a return to the days of Bill Clinton and her experience is not that outstanding. Mccain is a solid decent guy, but there are questions over Iraq, as he seems to feel that the surge has worked.

I think that thje Clinton"Dirty Trick's Department " will be out in strength. I am told that the New York Senator is moving the court to seek seating of delegates from Michigan and Florida both of which she techically won but as per existing rules she cannot have delegates from them. The rules must be the same for all candidates. The "super delegates" are likely to blow with the prevailing wind and the prevailing wind is from the Obama side.
Reply #6 from JoeUser Forums Top

I am told that the New York Senator is moving the court to seek seating of delegates from Michigan and Florida both of which she techically won but as per existing rules she cannot have delegates from them.

That is probably the worst kept secret.  While they (Clinton Inc) have not admitted it, it has been stated by many pundits since the whole disenfranchisement of those states voters was announced by the party.  And regardless of the "gentleman's agreement" not to run in those states, that is clearly why she did.

The "super delegates" are likely to blow with the prevailing wind and the prevailing wind is from the Obama side.

This is an interesting observation, and one I think you nailed.  The Super delegates have said they support X or Y, but there is nothing binding them to that support.  They can change.  I do not think they will change before the convention, but if it looks like one candidate needs a few votes to get a majority, look for some of them to switch.

Reply #7 from JoeUser Forums Top
How does Huckabee won anything? Wasn't it McCain's supporters that allowed him to win some of the primaries?

In that case, why would McCain offer a Vice-Presidency to someone who's only success is due to his own political tactics?
Reply #8 from JoeUser Forums Top
In that case, why would McCain offer a Vice-Presidency to someone who's only success is due to his own political tactics?
End of quote


Because Huckabee will bring in the Conservative Christian Base. They will not vote for the democrat, but they will consider sitting it out.
Reply #9 from JoeUser Forums Top
Because Huckabee will bring in the Conservative Christian Base. They will not vote for the democrat, but they will consider sitting it out.
End of quote


Romney would bring a bigger economic conservative base, and I am sure he would make an excellent Vice-President, while Huckabee would probably make independants flee on sight.
Reply #10 from JoeUser Forums Top
while Huckabee would probably make independants flee on sight.
End of quote


But McCain wont make the independants flee. That is why they almost always look for balance on the ticket. McCain has the independant vote (as much as anyone else on the right does), so they do not need someone to pander to that segment.
Reply #11 from JoeUser Forums Top
Because Huckabee will bring in the Conservative Christian Base. They will not vote for the democrat, but they will consider sitting it out.
End of quote


But Huckabee repulses as many Conservatives as he attracts.

With Romney out of it, Huckabee lost his best card... He can't play the "I'm the real Chirstian" card anymore.
Reply #12 from JoeUser Forums Top
But Huckabee repulses as many Conservatives as he attracts.

With Romney out of it, Huckabee lost his best card... He can't play the "I'm the real Chirstian" card anymore.
End of quote


I guess AD's "joke" will come to pass. McCain/Lieberman.
Reply #13 from JoeUser Forums Top
The RINO and the former DINO... what a ticket! lol
Reply #14 from JoeUser Forums Top
Wasn't it McCain's supporters that allowed him to win some of the primaries?In that case, why would McCain offer a Vice-


American primaries follow rules that are somewhat confusing to the rest of the world. The primaries are conducted by the state party units with logistical support for the Secretary of State of the particular sate or the Lt Gov office which oversees the elections. There atre no unfiform rules and each party has its own rules as per the regulations of the party unit ion aparticular state. In one state the Democrats have propotional representation which the Republicans have "winner take all" and in others it is the conversre of that. This complec system came into being in the second quarter of the last century after a series of political scandals like the Tamanny Hall or Tea Pot Dome affaie in which party bosses were seem as pursuing their own private ends instead of public good. The primary System has broken the backs of the party machine but that is repalced by an overdependence on corporate and heavy duty funding which trnaslates as influence in the political sphere. The position of Vice President in the American constition is severely restricted: he is the presiding officer of the senate and has no vote unless there is a tie. In the young American Republic in the pre civil war days, the post of VP went to the candidate who ran for president and came second. This experiment proved a disaster and was given up.
Reply #15 from JoeUser Forums Top

In the young American Republic in the pre civil war days, the post of VP went to the candidate who ran for president and came second. This experiment proved a disaster and was given up.

Overall, I give your comment an A.  Just wanted to clarify this one point.  It was the early 19th century (not mid 19th century) when the 12th amendment was passed.  The Civil war was in the latter half of the 19th century.

But as I said, a very good analysis (and commentary) on the selection process.  While it may be "confusing" to most of the rest of the world, it does seem you have grasped it well - better than most Americans have if another article is an indication of what Americans think.