Ground combat rules?

Can anyone explain how the various factors work in ground combat so you can estimate the chances of winning under different choices? e.g. is the "advantage" factor multiplied by the number of troops and compared with the same for the defence? Or what? And what role does the random multiple (e.g. 9:1)determined by the space bar play in the calculation? What role does the "tech" factor play? As it is now, it is all just a mysterious black box. Is there a rule of thumb anyone has worked out for how many troops you need to defeat a given population on normal attack?
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If you have 2 advantage factor and the enemy has 1 you'll kill around 2 times more troops than you lose.

Soldiering bonuses from tech and elsewhere matter a lot, also the special options like Mass driver and Tidal *something*, have a big impact.

One thing to keep in mind about the special options is that they have no negative effects on the planet unless you win.