New MS Copilot centered OS Plans Leaked

I had seen this on Windows Central a few weeks ago, and according to Zac Bowden "...there's a version of Aion that also runs on top of Windows 11, which would presumably support running Windows apps natively. But the version in the video appears to be based on the Win3 version, which sources tell me is a stripped back version of the Windows codebase that does not include support for legacy Win32 apps in exchange for faster updates, longer battery life, and better security."

I don't see this actually happening unless it becomes a separate, optional OS version. I'm sure that Enterprise users could develop their own Agentic shell for Windows 11 that runs internally, based on the company's database.

This could be another Windows 8 moment for Microsoft if they actually follow through with this OS. I certainly will not be using it!

That'll be the two of us. I'm the last person on this planet who would use an AI centered OS. 

The Copilot shell is the part everyone is reacting to, and I think it is the least of it. A shell is replaceable. People here have been replacing or reskinning the Windows shell in one form or another since the Windows 98 days, and if Microsoft ships a chat box where the Start menu was, someone will ship a way to put the Start menu back.

The line worth reading twice is the one pelaird quoted: Win3, no Win32. That is the part that would actually change anything. An OS without Win32 is not one where customization gets harder, it is one where there is nothing for the tools to attach to in the first place.

Microsoft has tried that trade three times already. Windows RT in 2012, S mode after it, and 10X, which was announced and then cancelled in 2021 without ever shipping. The pitch each time was the same one in the article: longer battery life, faster updates, a safer machine. Each time the missing Win32 support turned out to be the entire objection, and each time they walked it back or let it quietly die.

So I agree with pelaird that this does not replace Windows 11. I would not bet on it never shipping at all, though. A locked down web based OS on cheap hardware is something Microsoft has wanted for well over a decade, and Copilot is the strongest internal argument they have had for it yet.

No win32 means no apps. Everything is launched by Copilot and Edge, supposedly replacing W11 w/o a start menu, etc. Everything is web based. 

The computer revolution started with everything on the computer. Now? Everything will be on the web. IFF this goes forward. As I stated, I also doubt it will. I can't help but wonder if all this will be helped by the AI RAM crunch.

This keeps coming back because a machine that cannot run arbitrary local software is much easier to look after, and the people who feel that benefit are the ones managing a few hundred of them rather than the person sitting at one.

That experiment already ran with Chromebooks. They hold up until someone hits the one task the browser cannot do, and then you are buying that person a second machine, which puts the savings back where they started.

So I would read Aion as something aimed at fleets where somebody else picks the hardware, not at this audience.

Very true. Also, tMS gets to rent you what you use...like Adobe, etc. Home users lose what started the computer revolution: an actual home office with your stuff on your machine.

The renting happened without the new OS, though. Adobe moved to a subscription while running perfectly well on an ordinary Windows machine, and nobody had to take Win32 away to make that work.

What a web-only shell changes is not the billing, it is whether you get to keep a copy of anything. That is the part worth defending, and it is worth arguing separately, because the subscription fight was over years ago.

Usually what happens when a software subscription is allowed to lapse, it looses it ability to edit files. For instance, if your subscription to MS 365 lapses you can still run the software and open existing files, but you cannot create new or edit existing files. I'm not saying all software subscriptions work this way, but all the ones I've had experience with do. That is with the exception to, Stardock's new subscription to ObjectDock which purchased after May 2023 will see the software cease to function if the subscription is allowed to lapse.

I'm not opposed to subscription software, as it usually provides a relatively similar cost to owning the software and paying for updates over time. I have several software subscriptions, and they work well for me, as long as I pay the yearly rate instead of monthly. With Windows OS constantly changing, it makes sense to have a constant access to software upgrades. One change in Windows could cause any software to not function properly and require an upgrade.

If MS Windows becomes a subscription, it won't bother me. I wont love it, but I'll accept it. After all the years of free updates and upgrades to Windows, the cost will balance out. From 2015 to now, Windows has been free to non-enterprise users. That's 11 years of free Windows, which most likely would have cost over $500 for the Pro version (based on past pricing and inflationary costs).

Don't get me wrong. I'm not wild about Web only software subscriptions, but a subscription for locally run software doesn't bother me.

The latest trend from Microsoft is locally run AI models on native software, so I don't see Web only software becoming a thing anytime soon. Microsoft Windows 365 Cloud PC is too expensive for the average user, and costs Microsoft too much to implement it for everyone. Talk about a mass exodus from Windows to Linux if this becomes the norm!

I could be wrong about all of this as things seem to change overnight in the tech world, especially at Microsoft.